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Stampa Stampa
34

EVOLUZIONE DELLA CRISI ECONOMICA-PANDEMICA


Riceviamo e pubblichiamo: 

PRESERRE (CZ) –  6 GENNAIO 2021 –  Attualmente le autorità governative di molti Paesi dell’Area Euro stanno attuando la strategia del “lockdown” che ritengo sia meglio chiamare “lockdown light”, la quale persegue la modalità dello “stop and go”, per adeguarsi ovviamente alla variabilità dei contagi durante la fase pandemica: questo finché non si tornerà alla normalità, o meglio ad una nuova normalità, presumibilmente nel 2022.

È molto difficile che si arrivi prima.

Probabilmente con questa strategia il P.I.L. potrebbe evidenziare effetti meno gravi rispetto a quelli della scorsa primavera. La ripresa economica dei Paesi dell’Eurozona potrebbe essere probabilmente ancora ritardata, ma non relativamente compromessa.

Le Agenzie di Studi Economici ipotizzano per l’U.E., relativamente all’anno appena trascorso, una contrazione media di circa -8%, ma i dati sono ancora tutti da mettere a punto. Tuttavia per l’avvenire si prevede una ripresa, sia pure flebile, non prima di fine estate 2021, se permangono, secondo gli esperti del settore, regole di disciplina nelle interazioni sociali.

Solo nella seconda metà del 2021, e solo se ci sarà un’adeguata disponibilità e risposta dei vaccini, potrà levarsi una brezza di moderato ottimismo, che potrà far bene all’economia, perché tante incertezze si attenueranno, anche se non scompariranno.

Restano, tuttavia, molte ferite sociali ed economiche, che non sarà semplice rimarginare e che richiederanno tempo e tempo, senza assolutamente voler apparire come la “Omerica Cassandra” del momento.

Ma la realtà sarà evidente con l’apertura di diversi fronti in ogni comparto: la disoccupazione aumenterà, si verificheranno maggiori insolvenze e, da non sottovalutare affatto, ci sarà maggiore pressione sul sistema banche.

Cosa fare? Ogni Paese dell’Area Euro, ma in particolare l’Italia, dovrà dare risposte politiche mirate, e pronta a modificare il “tiro” per così dire delle azioni politico-economiche, con immediata rapidità, con interventi tempestivi, deve far presto insomma, rinvigorendo la fiducia nel settore privato, per evitare recessioni con ricadute economiche, al fine di limitare quanto più possibile i danni all’economia, danni che potrebbero essere altrimenti molto duraturi.

In questa direzione gli interventi dovranno evitare, per quanto riguarda il comparto “Imprese”, sopra tutto le crisi finanziarie determinate dalle carenze di cassa aziendale.

Se gli interventi saranno efficaci, non importa poi se quelle Imprese quotate in borsa possano registrare qualche sopravvalutazione delle loro azioni: meglio! Avranno una sorta di intercapedine ammortizzante se la redditività e/o la produttività dovesse flettere. Ma questo è un discorso prettamente tecnico che sfugge ai più e lo lasciamo ai sofisticati analisti delle faccende di Borsa.

Per concludere: oltre al controllo stretto sulla situazione sanitaria, occorreranno delle linee guida: voglio solo esprimere poche indicazioni: sgravi fiscali, ma come? Ricorrendo agli interventi dell’Unione come Recovery Fund e/o M.E.S. (in inglese E.S.M.) a seconda della strategia politica, sulla quale preferisco non soffermarmi; occorrerà orientarsi verso particolari schemi di lavoro, rivisitare le garanzie del credito pubblico etc. etc.

Da parte sua anche la B.C.E. dovrebbe fare la sua parte, ricalibrando, ove necessario, le risposte alle attese politico-economiche dei Paesi Europei.

DR. WALTER FRANGIPANE – Economista

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